An'n'Th | Jul-24 | India Election Results and Upcoming Budget

India general election results came on 4th June 2024 with some surprise against the exit polls and NDA supporters expectation. We understand that pulling the party and pre-poll alliance NDA to win third time is not easy but against the target of 400 plus, it is a set back to some extent for sure. INDI alliance rhetoric of EVMs hacking and manipulation have taken a back seat and projecting the Indian Institution - Election Commission of India image as biased and supporting govt or NDA, has fallen flat in this election results. Indian democracy has shown the world why it's best, thriving, and puts check and balances on the leaders and parties as they fight election.

On NDA side at least they got majority and the coalition govt has been formed with the good support from JD(U) and TDP, although lot of poaching were in play and may be will be in play. Most of the ministers and critical portfolios see the continuation from the last term. This is a good victory from the coalition government point of view. In UPA, Cong had managed to run govt with 140 or around 160 seats with support from third alliance. This time all opposition were together. Maharastra and Uttarpradesh have been major disappointment for NDA. In Maharastra, it looks like BJP have mishandled the sympathy, they had and rushed in forming government and dividing the parties to make government first as a failed attempt and then made the government but lost the sympathy and people trust as a greedy party who divided and downplayed Maharastra home grown parties.

Uttarpradesh, also looks some fight and tussle with party, RSS and Yogi government intentionally or unintentionally induced. But whatever it is, BJP has to handle it, and if there is any right successor in BJP for PM in next term or so, it's Mr Yogi only! Also Ms, Mayawati has supported implicitly to SP and Cong, and Mr. Rahul and Mr. Akhilesh has played together as their existential fight. SP stance is almost like left but Mr. Rahul has also taken the left position of politics or Congress has taken the left stance. They have done some kind of small gatherings like AAP Mohalla Sabha, which reached people left aligned better than ever. Rahul seems to be more confident in addressing people and topics although quite leftist view - appeasing minority, raising Agniveer concern, khatakhat schemes with QR code fooling and abating voters. As leader of opposition he expressed his thoughts without looking into scripts were better than earlier, although he has been intentionally or unintentionally implying BJP as Hindus and Hindus as trouble creators.

So this is the full opposition strength against Mr. Modi in today's context without probably RSS not being quite supportive in this election, BJP party divide and internal struggle in UP, being Maharastra almost a disaster due to unnecessary govt formation midway, aggressive and sometimes unnecessary naming and shaming of communities and corporates. To an extent Bengal was not handled properly. Leftist ideology gets easily convinced by people on lower level. On centre politics defeating congress is easy but on left politics defeating all opposition together is tough. BJP has to stitch party, government and people trust together.

Coming to 'Agniveer' scheme, just see that now the new armed forces don't need as many people as it used to have earlier. In modern warfare, now it's the number of machines and their intelligence which is required, that means there is only limited number of meaningful vacancy or need for real people or personnel in defense forces. That means if there is x no of need in army or defence forces then 'Agniveer' scheme provides opportunity to 4X - four times people with the training. 3X who are not absorbed in defence force will get opportunity in police forces or para military forces. Govt can enhance the training scheme with placement cell placing rest 3X trained personnel if they wish to get them placed in jobs. Treat this 'Agniveer' training as next to SSB selection. These highly trained people in civil forces are required for better safety of civilians and they can choose other career after 4 years or so. Also the existing issues of people joining defence forces and retiring after 15 years of SSC have their own issues which also needs to be considered and compared. Creating and providing meaningful job and works where it's required is probably everyone's responsibility.

Providing alimony to Muslim women is a great ruling from SC side, which all Muslim men and major opposition parties are opposing - saying and reciting Sariah laws. I mean for people and individuals, religion choice should be confined to spiritual concerns in modern society and all citizens should be governed by common civil laws - addressing human society relationships, economic and financial safety, health safety and means to earn and engage their productive hours. Probably UCC is right pitch to address this issue and unlock the civilian productive work potential for building the nation. Otherwise Congress and left and INDI alliance will keep poor as poor and uneducated - living on unfulfilled pension schemes which will only raise inflation and probably in 8K people won't get even 8KG of wheat flour. Modi or BJP promise and delivery is unmatched to Congress promise and delivery.

Coming to the budget and ministers and also secretaries, it seems everyone is already on a set speed in making decisions and taking India to next level. RBI share of 2lakh crore dividend before the election result is nothing about any biases. Inclusion of govt bonds in different global indices and inflow of dollar investments will provide opportunities of lower cost funding of dollars for corporates for foreign expansion.

Coming to the taxes and budget, IT infrastructure of Tax ecosystem should be easy not cumbersome whether it's GST or personal income tax. User guide as videos and reliable video should be available and of good quality, quality as par with international standard. Filing of IT return this time as a remote worker was quite cumbersome. IT system doesn't seem to be reliable and with good intention. Before rolling out systems and functionality, it should be well user tested, may be NITI Aayog professional can be harnessed, if govt department is short on people. They will also get some real experience rather than just working on theories and concepts :) and will solve problem to make people's life easier.

On tax system, if we see old tax system is cumbersome, just discard it. Bring whatever relief and concession to the new tax system whether 80C or limit or whatever or slabs. New income tax slabs are more confusing than anything else. Tax payment, return filing should be simple for normal people and professional. There is no need to make it complex so that even normal people need to go to CA professional and pay 50000 for 1 rupee mismatch.

Bring everything under GST, for petroleum products keep a high rate for now. Whatever concession or relief is brought in should be real relief for those group of people. I don't think there has been any considerable relief for middle class of different category of people after Late Mr Jaitely's budget despite continued inflations.

References:

1. PIB

2. RBI

3. NDTV